Creating programs that lower fertility, discussing how that causes demographic issues, and then proposing replacement migration[0] rather than restructuring fertility incentives looks really bad. Especially when done by a small cabal of technocrats at insular meetings over the objections of most people.
That’s not more happenstance than the eradication of the four pests leading to famine, ie, technocrats often conspire and then catastrophically fail.
I think a lot of this stems directly from industrialization itself, even if there are specific policies which also go in this direction. The UN doesn't _really_ have the ability to set meaningful policy in countries across the world, however fertility drops off a cliff more or less universally as any country -- with any background, culture, etc. -- industrializes. To the extent that even countries which wish to oppose it are at best fighting an uphill battle.
I personally would have attributed that to the drift of the downstream effects:
- industrialization ultimately allows for women to meaningfully enter the workforce, which is a major pressure on fertility. This entering of the work force is quite delayed due to legal, cultural, and training issues.
- People probably don't just magically know when to have fewer kids, and I'm imagine the ramp-down happens over time.
- More specific things which suppress fertility might happen even later in the cycle. (as just one example: the accident of requiring car seats requiring the purchase of a much more expensive 3rd row vehicle, and so disincentivizing)
Is that along the lines of what you were thinking? I'm curious for what you think is causal here. (I'm not an expert, and am not trying to claim any expertise!)
That’s not more happenstance than the eradication of the four pests leading to famine, ie, technocrats often conspire and then catastrophically fail.
[0] - Actual term in UN reports.