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> Meanwhile, the technology continues to progress

And at the same time, his predictions are becoming more and more real



https://nautil.us/deep-learning-is-hitting-a-wall-238440/

Gary Marcus said that Deep Learning was hitting a wall 1 month before the release of DALLE 2, 6 months before the release of ChatGPT and 1 year before GPT4, arguably 3 of the biggest milestones in Deep Learning


Sam Altman said GPT-3 was dangerous and openai should be responsible for saving the humanity.


Worth pointing out that no one who doesn't work at a frontier lab has ever seen a completely un-nerfed, un-bowdlerized AI model.


There are some base models available to the public today. Not on "end of 2025 frontier run" scale, but a few of them are definitely larger and better than GPT-3. There are some uses for things like that.

Not that the limits of GPT-3 were well understood at the time.

We really had no good grasp of how dangerous or safe something like that would - and whether there are some subtle tipping point that could propel something like GPT-3 all the way to AGI and beyond.

Knowing what we know now? Yeah, they could have released GPT-3 base model and nothing bad would have happened. But they didn't know that back then.


But we know that ChatGPT 5 is better than anything un-nerfed, un-bowdlerized from 2 years ago. And is not impressive.




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