It won't "cannibalize" the PC market share. But I would argue that the overall market share is irrelevant. Most people don't even use Adblock/UBlock for Web browsing, so they don't even know what's best for them, and therefore are likely to just go for the cheapest option that gets the job done. Apple won't win them over, because that's not how Apple operates.
Another huge segment is people who just use whatever their work provides.
Laptop users who 1. care enough, 2. have the means, and 3. have the inclination to even get a personal laptop are a solid minority. Which coincidentally is how Microsoft gets away with the disaster that Windows 11 is. They have about _no_ user-customers left.
I know plenty of PC-hardliners that have switched from Windows to a Mac in recent years. And exactly nobody who has switched in the opposite direction.
I'm also pretty sure that most people who have personal laptops keep them around for 5+ years before upgrading. I myself had a 2015 15" MacBook Pro that lasted me until 2022 when Ventura support was cut off. I only upgraded it in 2023 when Apple launched Advanced Data Protection, which I was very keen to use, and had to make a choice between logging out of iCloud or buying a new MacBook. So seeing that the 2015 model had indeed reached it's useful life for me, I got myself a M2 Max 16", which I also fully expect will last me 7+ years.
So as long as IT procurement in most companies will keep buying whatever cheap PC laptops they can by weight, PC market share is safe, and Microsoft is doing the best they can to keep it that way. Apple can only compete for users who have the will and the choice. And the $699 MacBook will quite likely capture a few of them.
Additionally - I have a PC too. All it does is it runs videogames. In fact I use my personal PC a lot more often than I use my personal MacBook.
> And exactly nobody who has switched in the opposite direction.
This might be an issue with your optics. I personally know at least 4 people who left MacOS for Linux in the past decade, 5 if you include myself. 2 of those people aren't even programmers, they're just sick and tired of macOS turning into Windows.
The $699 Macbook will not capture any users that missed out on the M1 Macbook Air. It just won't. We already saw Apple try pushing the whole 12" Macbook vs 13" Air shtick, not only did it fail commercially but it gave people a terrible impression of the ecosystem. I cannot imagine any world in which "quite a few" people switch from Windows to a Fischer Price operating system.
