It's not an argument by analogy. It's a reductio ad absurdum on the generalization that reality always lies in the middle but not always at the exact middle.
"Round" does not mean spherical and both of these claims are falsifiable and mutually exclusive.
The AI situation doesn't not have two mutually exclusive claims, it has two claims on the opposite sides of economic and cultural impact that are differences of magnitude and direction.
AI can both be a bubble and revolutionary, just like the internet.
Round-earthers: The earth is round.
"Reality lies in the middle" argument: The earth is oblong, not a perfect sphere, so both sides were right.