> Scams try to catch people at their weakest. It’s not if but when.
The "weakest" probably also involves selection bias. What HN comments are really good at is triggering associations for me with things I once read. Today I finally found what recently lived in my memory as a vague "scam" that used probabilities: the "stock market newsletter scam" from John Allen Paulos's book [1]. The scam works like this: at every step, two variants with different predictions are sent out for some market characteristic. Only those who receive the correct prediction get the next newsletter, which is again split into two prediction variants. This continues, filtering down to a final, much smaller subset of receivers who have seen a series of "correct" predictions. The goal is to create an illusion of super predictive power for that final group and then charge them a premium subscription price.
Maybe this kind of scam is too sophisticated or not as effective today (due to modern anti-spam measures), but I wonder what other kinds of "selection bias" scams exist today
The "weakest" probably also involves selection bias. What HN comments are really good at is triggering associations for me with things I once read. Today I finally found what recently lived in my memory as a vague "scam" that used probabilities: the "stock market newsletter scam" from John Allen Paulos's book [1]. The scam works like this: at every step, two variants with different predictions are sent out for some market characteristic. Only those who receive the correct prediction get the next newsletter, which is again split into two prediction variants. This continues, filtering down to a final, much smaller subset of receivers who have seen a series of "correct" predictions. The goal is to create an illusion of super predictive power for that final group and then charge them a premium subscription price.
Maybe this kind of scam is too sophisticated or not as effective today (due to modern anti-spam measures), but I wonder what other kinds of "selection bias" scams exist today
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Innumeracy_(book)