The definition of what we see progress in with LLMs as anything akin to intelligence is your supposition, though.

It's a view I don't share at all. I don't see anything that could be even remotely considered intelligent under any reasonable definition of the term. Useful in places, yes. Intelligence, hard no. So the question of whether it will approch or surpass human intelligence makes no sense to me, because the technology and its progress are in an entirely different dimension and unrelated to that idea or goal.